Monday, April 25, 2011

Under the Microscope - Examining All Things Closely Part 5 - Scrutinizing the Inscrutable

Joseph Herrin (04-25-2011)


Winston Churchill once made the statement:

I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma...

Many people are similarly daunted at the challenge of understanding  the various reports and technical and scientific claims that are being passed around en masse across the Internet today. How is a non-technical person to decipher whether some claim is true concerning HAARP, the Large Hadron Collider, far off comets, the claims that the government is using chemtrails to poison the masses, or a myriad of other subjects? To become expert at all these areas would be impossible. Scientists and researchers tend to be specialists today, for knowledge of all areas is increasing exponentially. They must pick a specific field, or a subset of one field, and devote themselves to becoming expert in that area.

The Father has not called me to become a scientist, nor to seek to attain advanced degrees in such a broad range of study. I am called to be a minister, teaching and shepherding the people of God. I would have to abandon my call as a minister to give adequate attention to attain to the level of knowledge and understanding to work professionally in these fields. Some thought should be given to how much time the Father would have us to spend in attending to these myriad of issues, rumors, speculations, and theories.

Many people devote an inordinate amount of time to the exploration and discussion of conspiracies, doomsday reports, and the latest prophetic utterances of calamity and collusion. Such people become like the proverbial ambulance chaser. They have never met a calamity, or startling claim, that did not excite their interest. There are well known Christian ministries that are predominantly focused on disaster warnings. There is always a risk of getting out of balance in one’s focus. We must consider how much time God would have us devote to investigate these matters.

Part of my reason in writing this series is to provide a reference that I can point people to that might answer questions that I receive frequently. More importantly, I would like to encourage the saints to test all things, and develop the habit and ability to find the answers themselves. I have found myself spending a lot of time answering people’s queries about various claims and reports. In a span of a few days I had half a dozen people ask me what I thought about Comet Elenin. I believe there is merit in seeking to understand whether various reports are true or false, but I would rather teach the saints how to fish, testing matters themselves, than have to give them a fish every day.

At first glance, the task of discerning what is really going on at an installation such as HAARP might seem daunting. HAARP stands for the High frequency Active Auroral Research Project. It is described on its government homepage as “A premier facility for the study of ionospheric physics and radio science.” I don’t know about you, but I am a little rusty on ionospheric physics, and my knowledge of radio science doesn’t go much beyond turning on the radio and tuning in a station. How can you or I possibly fathom all the science and engineering involved in an installation such as HAARP? The answer is, “We cannot, but we don’t need to.”

When we encounter some claim, or conspiracy theory relating to an installation such as HAARP, what we really need to examine are the arguments set forth by the person originating, or forwarding the report. Are their claims founded upon solid evidence and accurate logic? Do they provide specific, verifiable data as evidence to demonstrate that they have tested the matter themselves, and to provide the reader the ability to do the same? Are the examples and testimonies they provide in support of their claims credible?

Although you or I may not be able to divine all the science behind a subject, we do possess the ability to fact check a report, and to test the logic of the arguments being set forth. We should be able to recognize speculation when we see it. HAARP has been reported to be a covert government installation that has been accused of being instrumental in mind control experiments on the population, causing volcanoes to erupt and massive earthquakes to occur, as well as being an instrument of weather modification. As revealed in a correspondence I shared from a brother in Christ, some are attributing Hurricane Katrina, and other destructive weather events to HAARP.

It was an easy thing to fact check the brother’s claim that Hurricane Katrina nearly died out over the Gulf of Mexico, but then mysteriously strengthened due to the government using HAARP to control the weather. The data is available on the Internet from an array of sources.

The burden is always on the person promoting a conspiracy theory to provide the evidence to support it. I have not found credible evidence in relation to the viral e-mails and posts all across the Internet that decry the calamities caused by HAARP. What evidence is provided is vague, irrelevant, lacking in specificity, and generally useless with regard to establishing any type of credible link. For example, more than one brother sent me a link to a government document titled “Weather as a Force Multiplier.” The subtitle was conveniently left off, which reads, “Owning the Weather in 2025.”

http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/usaf/2025/v3c15/v3c15-1.htm

The document contains a study presented to the Department of Defense in 1996, examining the “potential” for using weather to shift the balance toward America in an armed conflict. Following is a quote from the published study.

Technology advancements in five major areas are necessary for an integrated weather-modification capability: (1) advanced nonlinear modeling techniques, (2) computational capability, (3) information gathering and transmission, (4) a global sensor array, and (5) weather intervention techniques...


Current technologies that will mature over the next 30 years will offer anyone who has the necessary resources the ability to modify weather patterns and their corresponding effects, at least on the local scale...


In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part of national security policy with both domestic and international applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on its interests, at various levels...


In this paper we show that appropriate application of weather-modification can provide battlespace dominance to a degree never before imagined. In the future, such operations will enhance air and space superiority and provide new options for battlespace shaping and battlespace awareness. "The technology is there, waiting for us to pull it all together;" in 2025 we can "Own the Weather."
[End Quote]

On the surface, this appears to lend credence to the arguments that the government is using HAARP to create massive hurricanes, and other types of weather. However, a careful reading of the above words reveals that no such technology exists at present, and the authors of the study are predicting technologies that did not at that time exist, nor exist today. As a person reads through the study, it is realized that what is forecast in the above very optimistic words is far less than the ability to create and steer hurricanes.

The report goes on to suggest that by the year 2025 the technology might exist to create localized rain, and thunder storms, or to dissipate fog, but anything larger is considered untenable. Following is a quote from the report:

Extreme and controversial examples of weather modification-creation of made-to-order weather, large-scale climate modification, creation and/or control (or "steering") of severe storms, etc.-were researched as part of this study but receive only brief mention here because, in the authors' judgment, the technical obstacles preventing their application appear insurmountable within 30 years.
[End Quote]

A short distance below this, the author’s state, “The weather-modification applications proposed in this report range from technically proven to potentially feasible. They are similar, however, in that none are currently employed...” Although the author’s predictions of what might be possible in weather modification thirty years in the future may prove accurate in some degree, it is very obvious that there is no assurance that even their modest forecasts will be attainable.

Such technology to create massive weather systems, and steer them accurately, certainly does not exist at this date. With millions of dollars invested, and a legion of men and women devoting their lives to the study of meteorology, weather forecasting is still very primitive, extremely near-term, and fraught with error. There are advances occurring, but they are incremental, not paradigm changing. The report continues...

Two key technologies are necessary to meld an integrated, comprehensive, responsive, precise, and effective weather-modification system. Advances in the science of chaos are critical to this endeavor. Also key to the feasibility of such a system is the ability to model the extremely complex nonlinear system of global weather in ways that can accurately predict the outcome of changes in the influencing variables. Researchers have already successfully controlled single variable nonlinear systems in the lab and hypothesize that current mathematical techniques and computer capacity could handle systems with up to five variables. Advances in these two areas would make it feasible to affect regional weather patterns by making small, continuous nudges to one or more influencing factors. Conceivably, with enough lead time and the right conditions, you could get "made-to-order" weather.
[End Quote]

Can you perceive that what is forecast in these words is very tenuous? There is nothing certain. There are too many variables whose interplay in the creation of weather are not clearly understood. At best, the author’s are predicting that man by the year 2025 might be able to influence to a small degree as many as five factors that effect weather. How many factors exist? The answer is unknown, but certainly far greater than five.

The report expresses other caveats throughout its length.

Critical to the success of any attempt to trigger a storm cell is the pre-existing atmospheric conditions locally and regionally. The atmosphere must already be conditionally unstable and the large-scale dynamics must be supportive of vertical cloud development. The focus of the weather-modification effort would be to provide additional "conditions" that would make the atmosphere unstable enough to generate cloud and eventually storm cell development. The path of storm cells once developed or enhanced is dependent not only on the mesoscale dynamics of the storm but the regional and synoptic (global) scale atmospheric wind flow patterns in the area which are currently not subject to human control.
[End Quote]

This is an excellent document. It contains a multitude of references to other studies and scientific reports. There is an extensive bibliography at the end, providing the reader the ability to fact check statements.

What this document does NOT do is provide evidence that HAARP is being used for weather modification. Nor does it support the claim that the government manipulated Hurricane Katrina, turning it into a super storm and steering it toward New Orleans. In fact, the report provides much evidence AGAINST such a claim.

People of God, this report was one of the best pieces of evidence provided to me by individuals claiming a link to HAARP and weather modification. Much of the remaining evidence I have seen is mere conjecture. It is often presented by people who are not expert in the field. It lacks citations, contains poor logic in the arguments, and it contains very dubious scholarship. This report stands out as a rare exception, but in the end it simply does not support the claims of those who insist HAARP is being used by the government for the purposes they claim.

There is a section of this report that actually does touch upon what HAARP may one day lead to. It presents a model of technology developed to make changes to the ionosphere. The study of the ionosphere, and the ability of man to make changes to it, is the stated domain of HAARP. The government is not being secretive about this. Over 100 professional papers have been published by scientists, professors and their students who have used the HAARP facility. The HAARP website provides a link to some of these published sources, establishing that this is the function for which the facility is being used.

The following information is listed on their Q&A page:

Where can I read about the research that is conducted at the HAARP Facility?

Research conducted at the HAARP Observatory is generally published in peer-reviewed scientific journals such as the Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, and Radio Science. Since the first research campaign at HAARP in 1999, well over 100 scholarly papers have been published in these and other scientific journals. While the best place to search for results of HAARP research is at a university library, some of these journals provide an on-line search engine for their own publications. For example, to search for HAARP research published in one of the journals of the American Geophysical Union, go to their on-line search site:

http://europa.agu.org/?view=search

Enter the search term "HAARP" and press the search button.

Who are the people that conduct research at HAARP?

The scientists who conduct research at HAARP are university physicists, their students, government scientists and scientists from commercial firms having an interest in communication and radio science theory and applications.

What Universities have participated in the HAARP program?

Several universities have played a major role in HAARP from its inception to the present time including the University of Alaska, The Leland Stanford University, Penn State University (ARL), Boston College, Dartmouth University, Cornell University, Virginia Tech, University of Maryland, University of Massachusetts, MIT, Polytechnic University, UCLA, Clemson University and the University of Florida. The development of the program objectives and initial design concept, selection of the prime contractor, development of diagnostic equipment, and the planning of research campaigns have all been heavily dependent on university involvement. University students and professors make up the majority of attendees at the annual Ionospheric Interactions Workshop where progress in ionospheric research is reported.
[Source: http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/faq.html]

Rather than being the secretive facility that conspiracy theorists imply, this is a facility whose research, and researchers, are very public. Have any of those who are espousing that HAARP is a secret facility to create earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and to modify the weather, read the reports published in professional journals and scientific publications that have come from those who have performed experiments there? I doubt it. The writings and videos on this subject that I have seen reveal a glaring absence of critical review of the evidence.

In the study on weather modification I have been citing, there is a section that clearly relates to the HAARP facility today. The section follows:

Several high-payoff capabilities that could result from the modification of the ionosphere or near space are described briefly below...


Ionospheric mirrors for pinpoint communication or over-the-horizon (OTH) radar transmission... The major disadvantage in depending on the ionosphere to reflect radio waves is its variability, which is due to normal space weather and events such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms. The ionosphere has been described as a crinkled sheet of wax paper whose relative position rises and sinks depending on weather conditions. The surface topography of the crinkled paper also constantly changes, leading to variability in its reflective, refractive, and transmissive properties.


Creation of an artificial uniform ionosphere was first proposed by Soviet researcher A. V. Gurevich in the mid-1970s. An Artificial Ionospheric Mirror (AIM) would serve as a precise mirror for electromagnetic radiation of a selected frequency or a range of frequencies. It would thereby be useful for both pinpoint control of friendly communications and interception of enemy transmissions.


Besides providing pinpoint communication control and potential interception capability, this technology would also provide communication capability at specified frequencies, as desired. Figure 4-2 shows how a ground-based radiator might generate a series of AIMs, each of which would be tailored to reflect a selected transmission frequency. Such an arrangement would greatly expand the available bandwidth for communications and also eliminate the problem of interference and crosstalk (by allowing one to use the requisite power level).

Figure 4-2. Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors Point-to-Point Communications
Figure 4-3. Artificial Ionospheric Mirror Over-the-Horizon Surveillance Concept.

Disruption of communications and radar via ionospheric control. A variation of the capability proposed above is ionospheric modification to disrupt an enemy's communication or radar transmissions. Because HF communications are controlled directly by the ionosphere's properties, an artificially created ionization region could conceivably disrupt an enemy's electromagnetic transmissions... The payoff of research aimed at understanding how to control these variations could be high as both HF communication enhancement and degradation are possible. Offensive interference of this kind would likely be indistinguishable from naturally occurring space weather. This capability could also be employed to precisely locate the source of enemy electromagnetic transmissions.
[End Excerpt]

To put this quite simply, the Department of Defense has been exploring ways to improve their communications, while also looking for ways to disrupt the communications of enemy combatants. This is certainly an area of study that the government would have an interest in funding. The research proposed in this study on weather as a force multiplier is actually being carried out at the HAARP facility. The study was published in 1996. HAARPs first season of research began in 1999.

I do not doubt that some of the results from the experiments performed at the HAARP facility are classified. However, there is adequate published work from reputable sources to establish that this is indeed the focus of the facility. Its microwave heater, and its array of antennas, lose their mystery as one learns of this line of inquiry and experimentation.

It is a great leap, however, and lacking in evidence, to suggest that HAARP is responsible for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and worldwide weather events. To those who do not test all things carefully, any theory appears plausible. Even the most astonishing claims, left unverified, are adopted and passed along when they appeal to an individual’s natural distrust of the government. If the message is what they want to hear, they do not trouble themselves to verify the authenticity of the claims.

People of God, this subject is not my area of expertise, but neither is it likely to be the area of expertise of the people who are sending out the claims attributing all manner of world-wide calamities to HAARP. Although I am not an ionospheric or radio scientist, I can check the sources that others say prove their point. I am able to judge whether they have accurately understood and interpreted the material they are setting forth as evidence. In the material looked at here, I believe the honest and accurate judgment is that this material does NOT support the contention of HAARP causing these events.

In an hour when deception abounds, and men and women are not demonstrating the willingness to think critically and examine all things, the saints must manifest a different spirit. It did not take me long to look through this study that was presented to me as evidence that the government is using HAARP to create hurricanes, and other earth events. In truth, I do not believe the people sending the information to me performed due diligence in reviewing the material themselves. Their minds were already made up. Their thoughts had already taken on a bias in this matter. Consequently they were seeing only what they wanted to see. They failed to observe the facts right before their eyes.

In an hour of increasing darkness, we must strive to do better. I do not have the time, or leading, to be the tester of every claim that comes along. The saints are going to have to test matters themselves. Don’t be daunted. Just look at the evidence presented to you. Do some fact checking. See if the material actually says what people are suggesting. Examine the logic and the foundation of the arguments presented. Is it fact, or is it speculation?

Isaiah 8:11-13
For Yahweh spoke thus to me with a strong hand, and instructed me that I should not walk in the way of this people, saying: "Do not say, 'A conspiracy,' concerning all that this people call a conspiracy, nor be afraid of their threats, nor be troubled. Yahweh of hosts, Him you shall hallow; Let Him be your fear, and let Him be your dread.”

There are true conspiracies, and many evil things accomplished by man, but let us test all reports. Not all are accurate. A great many are nothing more than fables. Nevertheless, they have gripped the minds of many who have accepted them without testing them first. Patience is needed.


Heart4God Website: http://www.heart4god.ws    

Parables Blog: www.parablesblog.blogspot.com    

Mailing Address:
Joseph Herrin
c/o Fair Harbor RV Park
515 Marshallville Road
Perry, GA 31069-3016

3 comments:

Bob Hill said...

If I want to know if a matter is true or not I ask the Holy Spirit, not a scientist.

Joseph Herrin said...

Dear Bob,

As I mentioned in a previous post in this series, God created man to be a tri-part being. Regenerate man consists of spirit, soul and body. It is the Father's will that we employ all of our being in the pursuit of truth.

I have laid much emphasis in many of my teachings on the necessity of hearing God's voice. This is very important. However, it is quite unrealistic to suggest that a man's powers of rational thought and critical thinking, do not have a role to play in arriving at truth. Spirit and soul and body all work together, for we are integrated beings.

If you would patiently review many of the things you believe as truth today, I am certain you will discover that a large portion of them cannot be ascribed exclusively to a word of revelation from the Spirit of Christ. Your rational mind has been a useful tool that is employed in this process.

May you be blessed with peace and understanding in these days.

janie mcmanus said...

tHANK YOU FOR THIS INSTRUCTIVE SERIES. IT IS HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY TO ONE LIKE ME. I AM NOT A SCIENTIST, AND I HAVE BEEN BAFFLED BY THE MYRIAD ANGLES TO CONSIDER WITH ALL THE THINGS "COMING UPON THE EARTH"...I HAVE FOUND MYSELF SWEPT TO AND FRO WITH ALL THE RUMOR, AND DEVELOPING AN APPETITE FOR THE NEXT DREAD THING...VERY, VERY DRAINING, DISTRACTING AND DESTRUCTIVE TO MY REST. SO, IAM REGAINING A MORE AUTHORITATIVE TRUST, AS YOU DESCRIBE IT, TAKING HOLD OF MY RESPONSIBILITY TO WEIGH WITH WISDOM ALL THESE FACTOIDS FED TO ME. THAT SCRIPTURE OF ISAIAH 8:11-12 BROUGHT ME BACK TO READ THE WHOLE CHAPTER IN THE CONTEXT OF WHAT YOU ARE SAYING. INTERESTING.
SO IAM A TRUSTING CHILD;TRULY ATTENTIVE, INQUISITIVE, AND YET NOT DOUBTING MY FATHER'S GOODNESS.
JANIE